Census data released last Thursday show the Haines Borough had its largest population decline in history and the largest of any Alaskan borough or census area over the last decade.

But the census count stands in stark contrast with state estimates and PFD data.

According to the census, Haines’ population fell by 17.1% — from 2,508 in 2010 to 2,080 in 2020 — with much of the decline outside of the townsite. Mosquito Lake and Covenant Life lost more than 50% of their 2010 population.

But the census numbers don’t align with the state’s 2020 borough population estimate of 2,520, which was calculated using 2010 census data and PFD applicant numbers. In 2020, 2,289 registered borough residents applied for a PFD, compared to 2,276 in 2010.

Jila Stuart, the borough’s chief fiscal officer, said “it’s possible” that the census population data will impact “several state and federal programs” that fund Haines and that the borough is investigating if its finances will be affected. Representatives at the Alaska Department of Commerce didn’t respond by press time to requests for comment on how the census might impact the state’s distribution of community funds. In the 2015 fiscal year, 132 federal programs used census data to distribute over $675 billion nationwide, according to a Census Bureau report.

State and borough officials aren’t sure what caused the apparent Haines population decline — or why the census and PFD numbers don’t align. “Haines is definitely one we’re looking at and saying, ‘Hmm?’” said Eric Sandberg, demographer at the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Statistics.

Some theories are that snowbirds or the pandemic skewed the count or that the data aren’t accurate because Haines had a low self-response rate: 33.8% versus 54.7% statewide, 67% nationwide and 46% in Haines in 2010. “Self-response rate” refers to the percentage of households that mail completed forms back to the Census Bureau. Bureau officials, at least in theory, follow up with households that don’t return completed forms. A U.S. Census spokesperson did not return a call for comment when asked what Haines’ total count was.

“It could be Haines has the oldest population in the state. It could be that some of this population is snowbird,” Sandberg said. “Maybe snowbirds were counted as residents of their winter communities instead of Haines.”

Census data on age won’t be released until 2022, but the state estimated Haines’ median age in July 2020 was 48.6, up from 46.9 in the 2010 census. An influx of snowbirds, often retirees, might have contributed to that rise.

The pandemic might have impacted the count, too. “Maybe people decided to be elsewhere from Haines last year,” Sandberg said. For example, fewer people were counted last year at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. But there isn’t hard evidence linking the pandemic to Haines’ data.

Borough school district enrollment might indicate a population decline but not of the magnitude reflected in the census. Enrollment slimmed by about 13% since the 2010-11 school year. Much of that decline occurred before 2013. Since then enrollment has remained between 260 and 280 students.

Nationwide there were concerns last year about the accuracy of the census results given that the pandemic interrupted the count. Several municipalities and advocacy groups unsuccessfully sued the Census Bureau for ending data collection two weeks earlier than planned. The bureau reported that 99.9% of the nation’s households were counted.

The 2020 census also was the first with a security measure that injects statistical “noise” into the official data to protect people’s privacy. While the data are supposed to be accurate at the state level, there could be minor errors at the borough and neighborhood level, according to officials. For example, University of Minnesota demographers found the census tallies 48 residents of New York's Liberty Island, even though the island is uninhabited, according to a Bloomberg CityLab report.

Still, Sandberg said, the new privacy measure “should not have led to drops this large (in Haines),” although it might help explain the low numbers in Mosquito Lake, Covenant Life and other hyper-localities.

Petersburg, Sitka and Wrangell shrank along with Haines, while Southeast grew by several hundred residents. Haines’ thinning stands apart, with the region’s second biggest decline at 10.4% in Wrangell.

Meanwhile, Alaska’s population added about 20,000 people, now totaling 733,391. Skagway, the Mat-Su and North Slope swelled the most.

In addition to appropriating funds, census data are used to draw legislative districts. A state committee will meet in late August to set a schedule for redistricting in Alaska. Haines likely won't be affected, but Yakutat might be added to a House district in Southeast, and the Mat-Su likely will gain a seat in the House, according to an Alaska Public Media report.

Nationwide and statewide, the latest release of census data showed an increase in the proportion of citizens who identify not as solely white. Haines has remained significantly less diverse than the rest of Alaska and the country, but its racial demographics changed slightly: the borough’s percentage of white people dropped from 82.2% in 2010 to 75.8% in 2020.

Data on age, sex and other details will be published early next year. Sandberg at the state Department of Labor said those data might help clarify the mysterious numbers in Haines.